Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison
Abstract
Significance Agriculture is arguably the sector most affected by climate change, but assessments differ and are thus difficult to compare. We provide a globally consistent, protocol-based, multimodel climate change assessment for major crops with explicit characterization of uncertainty. Results with multimodel agreement indicate strong negative effects from climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes where developing countries are concentrated. Simulations that consider explicit nitrogen stress result in much more severe impacts from climate change, with implications for adaptation planning.
Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
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