Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe

Dagmar Schröter, Wolfgang Cramer, Rik Leemans, I. Colin Prentice, Miguel B. Araújo, Nigel W. Arnell, Alberte Bondeau, Harald Bugmann, Timothy R. Carter, Carlos A. Gracia, Anne C. de la Vega-Leinert, Markus Erhard, Frank Ewert, Margaret Glendining, Joanna I. House, Susanna Kankaanpää, Richard J. T. Klein, Sandra Lavorel, Marcus Lindner, Marc J. Metzger, Jeannette Meyer, Timothy D. Mitchell, Isabelle Reginster, Mark Rounsevell, Santi Sabaté, Stephen Sitch, Ben Smith, Jo Smith, Pete Smith, Martin T. Sykes, Kirsten Thonicke, Wilfried Thuiller, Gill Tuck, Sönke Zaehle, Bärbel Zierl

2005Published

1.3KCitations

0References

journal articleType

Abstract

Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, “surplus land” for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.

Journal: Science

Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

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